2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions
- Samuel Haines
- Feb 7, 2022
- 12 min read
Oscar season is, and has been, in full swing. The regional critics have proven to mean little to this awards season, as the guilds and more serious televised precursors have differed in preference. Most notably, Kristen Stewart dominated the Leading Actress regional critics’ awards to be left with a sole Golden Globe nomination heading into Oscar nomination Tuesday. Love also seems absent for her film, Spencer, which similarly has failed to capitalize on some realistic technical nominations such as costume or production design. Rather, it seems guilds have an appreciation toward Don’t Look Up, Belfast, and Being the Ricardos (and of course more worthy films such as Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, and Nightmare Alley). For the first time, I have actually fully-followed an awards season and feel slightly more comfortable in my predictions. In the past I never paid much attention to guilds, longlists, or even shortlists (embarrassing). While I still am far from an expert, and acknowledging there are clear areas where “this” could be nominated instead of “that”, I think these predictions are locked and final. There are a few swings I took here (Animated and International Film, specifically) that likely will end up as misses, but predictions just aren’t fun unless you take a risk when warranted.
Best Picture
The Power of the Dog, Belfast, Dune, Don’t Look Up, Licorice Pizza, CODA, King Richard, West Side Story, Nightmare Alley, and Being the Ricardos.
For the first time in over a decade, the Best Picture category is back to a mandatory 10 films. This causes some uncertainty, with the last two slots a bit unpredictable. West Side Story has struggled to get guild support where it would have been expected, leading some to doubt its Best Picture chances. I think the film is safe in eighth place. Nightmare Alley, sadly, has not had the passion it honestly deserves. Realistically, this film could be a leading Best Picture nominee, but poor distribution tactics likely will overshadow a decent awards campaign. That all said, it makes sense in spot nine, as the film will likely get attention from a few branches like production design, costume design, cinematography (as it already has in guilds) and perhaps even an acting nomination (I’ll get into that later). So, really, the confusion came down to the final spot and what could be nominated: Drive My Car, Being the Ricardos, Tik Tik Boom or even a family-friendly animated film like Encanto (expected to snag an Original Song and Original Score nomination). Ultimately, I felt Drive My Car was too long and dense for the average voter and have favored Being the Ricardos, which strongly has been campaigned by Amazon Studios. I’m not sure Ricardos will have any nominations outside of the acting and screenwriting branches (though I did debate an original score nomination), but I do see the film getting a number votes within some technical branches which realistically could signal a Best Picture nomination.
Best Director
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Denis Villeneuve (Dune), and Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car).
Jane Campion is the clear frontrunner in this category, with the expected names to follow. As this category is nominated by the Directing Branch, I expect despite a potential Best Picture snub, Hamaguchi will still receive a nomination. In this scenario, I snubbed Steven Spielberg for West Side Story, which was nominated at the Director’s Guild. While perhaps Branagh could get the snub as his direction legitimately was poor and less flashy (or perhaps no one will), the lack of seasonal love for West Side Story could hurt Spielberg. Further, the Director’s Guild always seems to love him and that love has not always translated to Oscar nominations.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), Jennifer Hudson (Respect), and Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza).
The category you have heard every gay on twitter complain about. Oddly, for all the attention this category is receiving, I find it to be one of the more boring to focus on. While I still think Kristen Stewart has the potential to show up her on Oscar nomination morning, I believe it is safest to rule her out at this point. Lady Gaga and Nicole Kidman are the perceived frontrunners for the biopic performances. Kidman won the Golden Globe for Actress in a Drama while Lady Gaga surprisingly snagged a BAFTA nomination for Best Actress. Given the voting procedures, Gaga likely was one of two actresses nominated by popular vote (the rest were nominated by a smaller jury). This appears to have turned Gaga into a frontrunner (she also has an NYFCC Best Actress win, one of the major regional critics groups) during a season most of us had thought she may fizzle out by Oscar nomination morning. There is debate over who the second popular vote entry to the BAFTA actress category was and I believe that would be Alana Haim for Licorice Pizza. While she was overlooked at the SAG Awards, BAFTA loved Licorice Pizza and I believe the Oscar voters will too. Everyone is expecting a prestige nomination and I think it will be Haim (though perhaps that is not the prestige others are thinking). Olivia Colman, despite a BAFTA snub, is in a comfortable position. I feel the Jessica Chastain train has run out of steam (though she’s still very much a possibility) and have predicted Jennifer Hudson in her place, who I feel has late-season momentum and a decent campaign on her hands (though Hudson is my riskiest inclusion). Others strongly believe Penelope Cruz is a lock for Parallel Mothers. Me? Not so much. Sure, it could happen but there is no excuse for Cruz to miss out at the Golden Globes (where her film was nominated in Score and Non-English Picture) and the BAFTA longlist (where Parallel Mothers showed up in other categories). Marion Cotillard and Charlotte Rampling are European actresses who managed a surprised nomination in the Best Actress category in recent years, but I just don’t see it for Cruz (and I might eat my words come tomorrow).
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Will Smith (King Richard), Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…Boom!), Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos), and Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth).
Personally, the most difficult category to predict. While I believe Cumberbatch, Smith, and Garfield are safe, the last two slots have varied possibilities. Leonardo DiCaprio surprisingly received a BAFTA nomination (likely from popular vote) and is part of a SAG Ensemble nomination for Don’t Look Up, so there seems to be momentum behind his performance and it makes sense for a destined Best Picture nominated film to also snag an acting nomination. So, why is he missing? Nothing more than a gut feeling for Javier Bardem. While Denzel Washington is in a film I don’t expect to receive much love outside Cinematography and maybe Production Design, the Oscar voters love him and has nominated him in films with far less impact. So, the last slot realistically is between Bardem (who received a SAG nomination) and DiCaprio. The latter probably makes sense, but I have to go with gut here. I think Ricardos ultimately won’t be successful in racking up several nominations, but it is an accessible film and acting showcase that I believe will be in consideration across the board. At this point I’ll kick myself less if I keep Bardem in my lineup, than if I swap him for DiCaprio.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Ariane DeBose (West Side Story), Caitriona Balfe (Belfast), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Ruth Negga (Passing), and Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley).
Perhaps the most solidified category based on precursors. DeBose is the clear frontrunner despite the overall underperformance of West Side Story, and I strongly believe Balfe, Dunst, and Negga are locks. That leaves the last slot for either Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) or Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley). Ellis missed out on SAG and while she did manage a BAFTA nomination, she most likely was a jury-selection. Blanchett was longlisted at the BAFTA, but for Don’t Look Up. Nightmare Alley has played well among the guilds recently and managed to achieve a BAFTA nomination in all-but-one category where it was longlisted. Blanchett has been campaigning more heavily for the film and her performance, with many FYC adverts for the film including Cate Blanchett front and center. The role is very flashy and Blanchett is well-loved by her peers. Ellis plays a somewhat stereotypical mother/wife role and, while she does well despite limited material, I see it hurting her. I mean, I see no reason for Ellis to miss out on a nomination within the acting guild when she has a long career and recent resurgence in popularity (a narrative that should resonate with her peers). All said, the last slot is interchangeable between Ellis and Blanchett, but I’m going with Blanchett here.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Ciaran Hinds (Belfast), Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza), and Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog).
The most unpredictable acting category, with two completely open slots up for grabs. Kodi Smit-McPhee is the frontrunner for The Power of the Dog and Troy Kotsur of CODA rests comfortably in second. Ciaran Hinds, I believe (and despite a SAG snub) is safe in third. The last two spots have several names in contention: Jamie Dornan (Belfast), Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza), Jared Leto (House of Gucci), and Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog). I also could see Al Pacino pulling an upset nomination for House of Gucci. Personally, I think Cooper and Plemons will ride on the coattails of their careers and the popularity of their respective (likely) Best Picture nominated films. Cooper got a SAG nomination and, really, should be a Best Actor frontrunner for Nightmare Alley (that is me saying he’s had a visible and impressive year) and Plemons got in at the BAFTA (a likely jury pick, but still, the longlist could help his chances) and I expect The Power of the Dog to be well-loved at the Oscars. Plenty of supporting performances have been carried by their films in the past (think Marina de Tavira in Roma or Tom Hardy in The Revenant). Obviously, these two slots have a few possibilities (and I think if anything changes, House of Gucci is represented), but I actually feel quite comfortable predicting Cooper and Plemons.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, CODA, Dune, and Drive My Car.
One of the more predictable categories. Drive My Car might be a surprise, but it showed up at the BAFTA in this category and there is a history of BAFTA to Oscar correlation for Adapted Screenplay. West Side Story is a possibility, but much like Best Director, I have Drive My Car in its spot. I have little else to say aside from there was real potential for this category that is being wasted away on The Lost Daughter and CODA. Passing by Rebecca Hall and Nightmare Alley by Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan were far superior scripts in my opinion (and there are others on the fringe as well).
Best Original Screenplay
Licorice Pizza, Belfast, Don’t Look Up, Being the Ricardos, and King Richard.
A weak year for this category, which I expect Licorice Pizza to ultimately win and thus, Paul Thomas Anderson snag his first Oscar. While it may be nice to see an international film (or two) show up here, as The Worst Person in the World should (and Parallel Mothers could), I expect the above predictions to quite safely be named tomorrow.
Best Cinematography
Dune, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Power of the Dog, Nightmare Alley, and Belfast.
Another category I believe is quite safe, though Nightmare Alley and Belfast teeter at the edge. West Side Story and No Time to Die could spoil this lineup, but Nightmare Alley managed to get in both at BAFTA and the Cinematographer’s Guild while Belfast is a black and white Best Picture lock, so it just makes sense (despite the cinematography being quite awful).
Best Costume Design
Dune, Cruella, West Side Story, Cyrano, and Nightmare Alley.
In this category, I have Cyrano as the spoiler over House of Gucci. Janty Yates, designer for Gucci, won over 20 years ago for Gladiator, but has failed to ever receive a follow-up nomination. Cyrano designer Massimo Cantini Parrini received a surprise nomination last year for his work on the live-action Pinocchio and I think with how flashy the costumes in Cyrano are, that he could pull off a surprise nomination this year. Nightmare Alley also is on the fray, but Luis Sequeira has received nominations both from the guild and the BAFTA. I think this very well could be the line-up with House of Gucci as a potential spoiler.
Best Film Editing
Dune, Belfast, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, and Don’t Look Up.
These five predictions also are the five films that I believe would have received Best Picture nominations in a five-nominee year (last seen in 2008). Coincidentally, these also are the five Best Picture nominees at the BAFTA this year. CODA and No Time To Die also are heavily predicted (the latter more realistic), but I am banking on Academy love for Licorice Pizza and Don’t Look Up to produce nominations here.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Dune, Cruella, House of Gucci, and Coming 2 America.
I expect heavy prosthetics to win out here. Coming 2 America is a surprise choice that could be bumped in favor of Suicide Squad 2 or No Time to Die.
Best Production Design
Nightmare Alley, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Dune, West Side Story, and The French Dispatch.
The safest category to predict next to Original Screenplay, in my opinion. This is the one true lock Nightmare Alley has under its belt and I predict the equally impressive production design in The Tragedy of Macbeth to be represented. However, if there is a spoiler I’d expect Cyrano or Licorice Pizza to bump Macbeth.
Best Original Score
The Power of the Dog, Dune, The French Dispatch, Don’t Look Up, and Encanto.
A relatively safe category, though I had debated including Being the Ricardos here as it made the final BAFTA lineup. However, Encanto wasn’t really a player at BAFTA and I think the recent love for the soundtrack will bolster Encanto to a nomination (the first for its composer, Germaine Franco).
Best Animated Feature Film
Flee, Encanto, Luca, The Mitchells vs the Machines, and The Summit of the Gods.
I am going for a risk here by predicting severe longshot The Summit of the Gods in place of Raya and the Last Dragon. To be fair, Raya is a superior film to Encanto, but it got shafted with a poor release date in early 2021. Not to say the power and campaigning of Disney cannot help it, but if there is a miss I would expect it to be Raya. In the past, the Academy tends to nominate a surprise animated nominee and this year I think it could be The Summit of the Gods. Available on Netflix in the US, the animation is striking and the film is easily available for viewing. I’m not sure I fully believe it will happen, but I’m taking the risk here.
Best Documentary Feature
Flee, Ascension, The Velvet Underground, The Rescue, and Procession.
Many are expecting Summer of Soul, a perceived frontrunner, to be snubbed like Will You Be My Neighbor? and similar perceived frontrunners of years past. I’m jumping on the same bandwagon, but not confidently. I think perhaps The Velvet Underground could take its place as the alternative music documentary.
Best International Film
Drive My Car (Japan), The Worst Person in the World (Norway), Flee (Denmark), A Hero (Iran), and Hive (Kosovo).
Ah, one of my favorite categories that leaves some to be desired this year with the ultimate shortlist. Drive My Car and The Worst Person in the World are the safest bets here. Flee is eligible in three categories, which could lead to a snub here, but I’m not betting on it. Notably absent from my lineup is The Hand of God from Italy. For some reason, I just cannot (or do not want to) see both A Hero and The Hand of God making the final cut. And, I find A Hero more accessible and we all know the Academy loves Farhadi. While Prayers for the Stolen from Mexico makes sense as an alternative, being a Netflix release and legitimately brilliant film (whose director just snagged a DGA nomination) I see it being too dense and not, well, basic enough for the Academy to embrace. Hive appears to have a narrative driving momentum (a first nomination for Kosovo, a county not entirely recognized across the world) and the story is one I could see the Academy recognizing. This is a similar risk to my Animated Film predictions, but predictions aren’t fun unless you take a swing (and potential miss).
Best Original Song
No Time to Die (No Time to Die), Dos Oruguitas (Encanto), Down to Joy (Belfast), Somehow You Do (Four Good Days), and Here I Am Singing My Way Home (Respect).
This category is a tough one, in my opinion. There is little to go off, aside from No Time to Die and Dos Oruguitas being clear frontrunners, with the former expected to win. The Academy loves Dianne Warren (as a nominee at least), and I see her song from little-seen Four Good Days getting nominated. I mean, this woman was nominated for Breakthrough in 2019, so they must really love her. That leaves Down to Joy from Belfast and Here I Am Singing My Way Home from Respect on the fray. Realistically, it seems Beyonce and Ariana Grande could get nominations for King Richard and Don’t Look Up, respectively. The Academy is picky with which pop stars they choose to acknowledge though, snubbing Beyonce more than once for her original song contributions. I expect Ariana Grande to be the threat here (as Don't Look Up likely will be better embraced and her song is a pivotal part of the movie), perhaps overcoming Van Morrison’s Down to Joy. However, I’m keeping my predictions as they are and think Respect could pull a Harriet of sorts in getting a Best Actress and Best Original Song nomination for Jennifer Hudson.
The Missing Categories
I honestly took mostly guesses in the Sound, Visual Effects, and Short Film categories so there’s little to discuss, nor do I feel the need to justify my selections.
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